While the NBER collects economic data ostensibly to aid policymakers, the data it acquires is useless without proper economic theory to correctly interpret the ...
Business Cycle Fund aims to capture opportunities by rotating into sectors expected to do well in each phase. This approach helps investors navigate market ups and downs with a dynamic, ...
The US economy remains resilient. We are beginning to see signs of life in the manufacturing sector, with recent weakness is primarily a result of the most lagging economic data in the form of income ...
This paper proposes a very tractable approach to modeling changes in regime. The parameters of an autoregression are viewed as the outcome of a discrete-state Markov process. For example, the mean ...
LONDON, Dec 10 (Reuters) - Whatever 2025 holds for world markets, talk of an end to business cycle investing eerily reflects past periods of hubris and makes all the persistent bullishness seem ...
A Cal State Bakersfield economics professor emeritus estimated Wednesday that chances of the U.S. economy sinking into recession during the next year have risen to between 55% and 60%, joining a ...
We use multivariate unobserved components models to estimate trend and cyclical components in gross domestic product (GDP), credit volumes, and house prices for the USA and the five largest European ...
Life has its ups and downs. The economy is no exception. The good times can lift millions out of poverty, create new jobs, and fuel innovation through increased saving and investment. The bad times ...
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