Financial markets—specifically derivatives—contain information about the range of probable future short-term interest rates.

Employment growth has consistently come in above pre-pandemic estimates of the rate needed for unemployment to stay near its long-run natural rate. Even so, unemployment has held steady, which raises ...

The unemployment rate has risen over half a percentage point since the second quarter of 2023. Individual survey data underlying the unemployment rate can help in assessing which labor market ...

The results suggest that future changes in climate will increase exposure to extreme heat for outdoor workers in the United States. The number of days above 25°C for these workers rises substantially ...

Temporary layoffs accounted for essentially the entire increase in unemployment to its historically high rate in April 2020. Although the rate has come down since its peak, unemployment remains well ...

Download PDF (pdf, 1.0 mb) Download Chart Data (Excel document, 130 kb) Summary The 2019 Diary of Consumer Payment Choice (Diary) highlights findings from the fifth Diary study conducted by the ...

Wildfires have been a concern in California for decades. The intensity of these events has increased recently, with particularly large and destructive fire seasons between 2018 and 2021. Analysis ...

Thus, the evidence from the CPS suggests that the increase in the quits rate is being driven by young and less-educated workers in industries and occupations that were most adversely affected by the ...

The extent to which either supply or demand factors drive inflation has important implications for economic policy. I propose a framework to decompose inflation into supply- and demand-driven ...

The overall pattern masks substantial variation across our four racial and ethnic groups. Figure 2 shows that the college wage premium is especially large for Asian workers, with college graduates ...

Despite a sharp spike in unemployment since March 2020, aggregate wage growth has accelerated. This acceleration has been almost entirely attributable to job losses among low-wage workers. Wage growth ...