This time, we’ll curate things a bit more.2 From among the 40,000 simulations that FLIPR ran on Saturday, I’ve chosen 13 ...

You can leave questions for SBSQ #33 (the Larry Bird Edition) in the comments below. On the menu today: Why is the Silver ...

We’re chatting about all things midterms with our friends at The Argument, GD Politics, and Slow Boring. Think of this stream ...

I don’t mean to suggest that FiveThirtyEight invented the concept of systematic polling error, but the FiveThirtyEight/Silver ...

Partially, that’s because Senate races have more general appeal than individual House races.1 Most people who are following ...

What if Black voters turn out like it’s a presidential race? Democrats’ path to a Senate majority could become much more robust.

In Michigan, Jocelyn Benson is polling well ahead of Abdul El-Sayed. Do gaps like that tend to shrink on Election Day?

Mr. Irrelevant” has the NFL’s highest QBERT rating so far this season. It’s time to stop holding his draft position against ...

They’re nothing new, but they may be a growing threat. Plus, the story of the 2026 campaign through political ads in Still Counting EP7.

Today’s newsletter was originally conceived of as something slightly different, a sort of very meta column about FLIPR vs. prediction markets. But I’m feeling a little meta-d out this weekend — maybe ...