Financial markets—specifically derivatives—contain information about the range of probable future short-term interest rates.

A range of tariffs on U.S. imports has been enacted or considered recently. Trade tariffs can potentially affect price inflation for consumption and investment goods. Estimates suggest that the impact ...

The unemployment rate has risen over half a percentage point since the second quarter of 2023. Individual survey data underlying the unemployment rate can help in assessing which labor market ...

Surveys of professional economic forecasters and financial market data can reveal public perceptions about the future conduct of monetary policy. Current estimates suggest that both professional ...

How much has excess demand contributed to inflation recently? Next, we use our estimates of the causal effects of tightness, or excess demand, on inflation to help understand the recent evolution of ...

This data series is part of the Center for Monetary Research. Market-Based Monetary Uncertainty provides daily indicators measuring the uncertainty about future short-term interest rates based on ...

Shelter costs are one of the largest expenses for most households and an important component of overall inflation. It is therefore important to understand why shelter costs have remained stubbornly ...

Wildfires have been a concern in California for decades. The intensity of these events has increased recently, with particularly large and destructive fire seasons between 2018 and 2021. Analysis ...

Households accumulated more liquid assets beginning in 2020 than would have been expected without the pandemic. These “extra” liquid assets have dissipated, but their evolution has differed ...

Internal migration has been cited as a key channel by which societies will adapt to climate change. We show in this paper that this process has already been happening in the United States. Over the ...

The Congressional Budget Office recently raised its demographic projections for net U.S. immigration. Most of the increase in the projections came from undocumented immigrants. Updating the CBO ...