Probably not, but let’s run the numbers on a rare *November* Surprise. Plus, please join us for our Election Night coverage!

This time, we’ll curate things a bit more.2 From among the 40,000 simulations that FLIPR ran on Saturday, I’ve chosen 13 ...

You can leave questions for SBSQ #33 (the Larry Bird Edition) in the comments below. On the menu today: Why is the Silver ...

As Nate discussed in yesterday’s Still Counting post: “We’ve patched FLIPR’s assumptions in the Montana Senate race, which is a weird one because there’s both an actual Democrat (Alani Bankhead) and a ...

ELWAY has been updated with Thursday night’s game. Green Bay scored 21 unanswered points after falling behind 10-6 and held off a late Carolina push for a 27-19 win at Lambeau Field. Jordan Love threw ...

Below, you’ll find our forecast for each 2026 House race, along with how our numbers have changed over time and which states are likeliest to decide control of the chamber. Below, you’ll find our ...

Below, you’ll find our forecast for each 2026 Senate race, along with how our numbers have changed over time and which states are likeliest to decide control of the chamber. Below, you’ll find our ...

This is the landing page the FLIPR1 2026 gubernatorial forecast.2 This page is designed to be viewed on the web rather than in our email client or in the Substack app. Paid subscribers get full access ...

This is the weekly Still Counting post. It’s coming to you a day late because yesterday was one of those days. Not in a bad way, but in the way the last few days before the election typically are.

We’re chatting about all things midterms with our friends at The Argument, GD Politics, and Slow Boring. Think of this stream ...

What if Black voters turn out like it’s a presidential race? Democrats’ path to a Senate majority could become much more robust.